What the Citrini AI 2028 Predictions Mean for Business Buying
How a future shaped by AI-driven job disruption could transform the small business acquisition market
Citrini Research recently described a near-future world—2028—where artificial intelligence has eliminated or radically reshaped large numbers of white-collar jobs.
Let’s take that premise as true.
Assume AI dramatically reduces demand for corporate roles across consulting, finance, law, marketing, operations, and other knowledge work.
If that happens, it will reshape who buys businesses, how much they pay, and how competitive the acquisition market becomes. The ripple effects for business buyers could be enormous.
AI Job Disruption Would Accelerate the Shift Toward Ownership
For decades, the implicit social contract was simple:
get a degree
build a corporate career
expect stability
If AI disrupts that path, millions of highly capable professionals may suddenly face:
reduced job security
shrinking employment opportunities
compressed salaries
shorter career lifecycles
Those educated professionals still expect a good life and high earnings - they are not going to become plumbers. But, they may become the people who buy a plumbing shop.
\We are already seeing growing interest in entrepreneurship through acquisition (ETA). Large-scale AI disruption would likely accelerate this trend dramatically.
But here’s the critical second-order effect most people miss.
A Flood of New Buyers Would Enter the Market
If millions of displaced or at-risk professionals begin exploring business ownership, the acquisition market could experience a surge of first-time buyers. We’re already seeing this trend as corporate layoffs increase.
Think about who these buyers would be:
experienced corporate operators
highly educated professionals
financially sophisticated decision-makers
individuals with savings or access to capital
people highly motivated to replace lost income
This creates much more competition for good businesses.
More Buyers + Limited Supply = Higher Prices
Quality small businesses are already scarce.
Strong companies typically have:
stable cash flow
defensible customer bases
documented processes
low owner dependency
predictable operations
Those businesses don’t grow on trees today—and they certainly won’t if demand increases dramatically.
If Citrini’s scenario plays out, we could see:
rising valuation multiples
bidding wars for strong businesses
faster deal timelines
more aggressive buyers
fewer opportunities to negotiate favorable terms
In simple terms:
More buyers chasing fewer high-quality targets.
Why Multiples Could Increase Dramatically
Most small businesses today sell for roughly 2x–4x Seller’s Discretionary Earnings (SDE), depending on quality and industry, if they sell at all.
If demand for acquisition targets increases significantly, we could see:
higher pricing expectations from sellers
brokers running competitive processes
institutional capital entering smaller deals
greater competition from search funds and private equity
fewer “quiet” or discounted deals
This would fundamentally change the economics of buying a business.
The New Advantage: Speed, Focus, and Sophistication
In a more competitive acquisition environment, casual buyers will struggle.
Future winners will likely be those who:
understand their target criteria clearly
know how to evaluate businesses quickly
present themselves as credible buyers
understand deal structure deeply
build broker relationships early
position themselves before competition intensifies
Buying a business may shift from an exploratory process to a strategic race, and preparation becomes a competitive advantage. That’s where I help potential acquirers: be prepared and focused so you can move quickly on the right business.
The Window of Opportunity May Be Now
If large-scale AI disruption does arrive, we could see a structural shift in the acquisition market: Is the best time to learn how to buy a business before the market becomes crowded?
Want to Position Yourself Before the Market Changes?
If you’re considering buying a business, preparation matters—especially in a future with more competition and higher prices.
At Team Rise Consulting, I help professionals:
evaluate whether buying a business fits their goals
identify resilient industries
structure competitive acquisition strategies
position themselves as serious buyers
navigate an increasingly competitive market
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